West Texas Intermediate currently trades at 60.30 with the 2018 high at 66.63 and the 2018 low at 58.05. United States crude oil inventories are down 6 million barrels year to date and down 46.7 million barrels in the last 6 months. Whats troubling is this draw down with inventories continued during the 2017 fall and winter seasonal low demand period. This clearly sets the stage for continued rise in prices as we move into the 2018 high demand months.
From a technical perspective, WTI is trading within a consolidating pattern with a series of daily lower highs and daily higher lows since the January 25 2018 high(66.63) and the February 9, 2018 low (58.05). This consolidating wedge pattern most always follows a strong trending market which in this case, began with the June 2017 low 42.03 and continued until the January 2018 high.
However, while prices remain above the technical level 51.43, look for further rise to the 2018 high 66.63 as a daily open and higher close above 67 will support further rise to 69.91, 71.93 followed by 76.63 . To the downside, a daily open and lower close below 51.43 will support further price decline initially to 45.43.